Predictions, Football Trading and Profit – How to Bet and Win on Football

If you are looking for football predictions that are guaranteed to help you win, then prepare to be amazed. The football predictions I am about to give you are 100% accurate and guaranteed. So read on and discover exactly how to predict what will happen in any football match:

My First Prediction:

Okay, looking in to my crystal ball things are starting to become clearer, I can see people playing football, lots of matches, and can tell you categorically, that in over 90% of games a goal will be scored! Not what you were expecting? Try my second prediction below.

My Second Prediction:

This time I can see lots of matches on lots of different pitches, I can see goals being scored and can tell you exactly how many. There will be 2.7 goals scored per game! Still not convinced? Then read on to discover the significance of this information.

On the internet you will find hundreds of tipping websites giving predictions for football matches, but the fact is none of us can tell exactly what will happen in any given match. What we do know in advance however, is the statistical information surrounding the game, and this gives us the opportunity to approach our betting from a different and more profitable perspective.

This approach does not apply purely to football, in fact with any sport, if you take the time to analyse the statistics available and compare your findings with the odds available you will find that there are often areas where the odds on offer do not reflect the true chances of the event taking place. For example, not so long ago, a group of determined individuals were able to pin-point a market in golf where they were able to obtain odds of 100/1 on an event that was in fact a 50:50 chance!

Obviously, not everyone is going to find such large statistical discrepancies, but by knowing the statistics and facts you are in a much better position to balance your risk and reward. Betting in-play is a perfect opportunity to exploit this and during the course of a match they will always be several opportunities to maximise and minimise losses across several different markets to end up with a profitable outcome.

As an example, I have identified a specific tennis bet that statistically should be priced at around 20/1, but it is possible to lay on the exchanges at prices of 10 or better. If an opportunity like this is available in such a popular market, imagine what you may be able to discover in the hundreds of un-tapped markets covering the vast number of other sports and betting opportunities.

Knowing your markets, applying a strategic approach to the way in which you place your bets, and being selective will guarantee you long-term profits.

How to Profit From Sports Gambling

The goal for sports punters is to earn a profit whilst enjoying our favourite sport. The sad truth is that for the majority of gamblers, this is an elusive dream. However by developing and carefully following a stratagem anyone can make this dream a reality.

There are two factors to consider to profit from sports gambling:

  • Bet Selection
  • Staking Plan

Bet Selection

The first, Bet Selection, is obvious – we need to back winners at least some of the time. Let’s consider Horse Racing, anecdotally there are many professional punters who earn a comfortable living from picking horses, but the key word here is professional. Research and analysis of each horse in the 59 racecourses across the UK takes a sizeable amount of time and experience. If you want to be successful then it’s a full time job! For the majority of us this means we have to use the advice of experts to do some of the legwork for us.

Horse Racing Tipsters

UK horse racing has no end of self-proclaimed “experts” on the Internet charging up to £100 per month. When selecting a horse racing tipster the most important factor we need to consider is long term results.

The Internet is awash with tipsters who have had one good month but then go on to post a loss for the next six – but you will only see this one month on their home page! Never follow any tips without first checking the tipster’s full result history. Choose a tipster who publishes all their horse racing tips history, ideally where the results of the tips are published the next day along with a complete history of all their tips.

Take a look at a Tipster Proofing site such as Racing-Index who grades the results for a number of tipsters. Consider which tipster gives you gave for money and fits with your own betting profile – can you actually place the 100s of tips each month some tipsters require?

Following tipsters alone is not likely to earn us riches – the best tipsters are locked out for new members or charge such high rates that any profits are lost immediately. The solution is to develop our own system using tips from expert sources combined with our own research. This is the strategy successfully used in greyhound racing by followers of the site. As with most things; the more you put into your system the more you will get out.

Staking Plan

Once we have a betting strategy in place it is time to look at a staking plan. The simplest is Fixed or Level Stakes where we simply bet the same amount, for instance 2% of our initial betting bank, each time on our selected horse, however we would want to increase our wagers as our betting bank grows. This leads to Percentage Staking where a percentage of the current betting bank is wagered each time. This means as we win our stakes are larger and conversely the stakes shrink when the betting bank decreases.

However, intuitively we know these staking plans to be overly naive as we would be putting the same amount of money on a horse with low odds compared to a horse with high odds. As we are looking to maximise our profits we should be putting a larger stake on a low odds bet as the return will be less.

To find the optimal staking plan we could take a correspondence course in statistics and dedicate several years into research. Fortunately we live in age where this research is at our fingertips. From probability theory we have the Kelly Strategy where the optimal percentage of our betting bank is calculated from the odds of the bet and our own estimate of the probability of the horse winning.

Using an online Kelly Strategy Calculator just feed in the values to get the percentage of the betting bank to put on each horse. Now the Kelly Strategy can give us some scary percentage stakes if we have an initial run of high odds horses so we could adapt it to a Half Kelly Staking Plan where we wager half the percentage advised by the Kelly Strategy. This would result in a slower accumulation of gambling profits but a less hair-raising ride.

The most important sports gambling advice to heed is only bet with funds you can afford to lose. Always gamble responsibly – if you feel you need help and advice with problem gambling visit http://www.gambleaware.co.uk.